Taking a look at some existing stats, making several assumptions, and then crunching a bunch of numbers, I have made a guesstimate of the percentage of adults who perpetrate CSA.
Let's start with the existing stats:
1 in 5 children suffer CSA (newer studies now estimate the number is 1 in 10, but we'll stick with 1 in 5 for this)
In a set of interviews with offenders, 30% perpetrated against 10 or more children
Now the assumptions.
Based on "30% of adult offenders perpetrated against 10 or more children", I'm making the following guesses:
30% of adult offenders perpetrate against 15 children on average
30% of adult offenders perpetrate against 5 children on average
40% of adult offenders perpetrate against 1 child on average
Now we do lots of math!
Let's say we have 1,000,000 people in the US.
220,000 are under 18.
1 in 5 -> 220,000/5 = 44,000 suffer CSA
60% -> 44,000*.6 = 26,400 suffer CSA at the hands of an adult
Let's say we have N adult perpetrators.
30% offend against 15 children; 30% offend against 5 children; 40% offend against 1 child ->
N*(.3*15 + .3*5 + .4) = 26,400
N*6.4 = 26,400
N = 4,125
In our population of 1,000,000, 780,000 are adults. 4,125 of those are offenders.
4,125/780,000 = .005 = .5% = 1 in 200
So my guesstimate is that 1 in 200 adults are perpetrators of CSA.
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